CFB: Alabama vs. Virginia Tech (8:00E, ABC)

By
GS
Published: September 5, 2009

The ABC Saturday night college football schedule starts out with a doozy of a game between Alabama and Virginia Tech, a pair of top 10 teams in most polls. The Crimson Tide come off their best season in many years, as they started 12-0 in 2008 before dropping their final two games. They are a 6-point favorite over a Hokies’ team that is expected to reign over the ACC in ’09. Nearly two-thirds of bettors at Sportsbook.com like ‘Bama’s chances of getting it done on the number.

 

Alabama played in the SEC title game and made a BCS bowl game, are greater things on the horizon for Nick Saban’s (19-8, 12-13-1 ATS) third year in Tuscaloosa? It depends and the answer won’t really be known until later in the season. Where the tricky part is the offense, junior Greg McElroy has waited his turn and is now the big man on campus for the Crimson Tide. McElroy has professed to be ready and sophomore sensation Julio Jones will be one of his favorite targets to pass to. The offensive line has to be reworked with three outstanding starters gone and running back Glen Coffee leaving early. On defense, there are zero question marks with nine starters back and improving depth in support. All-American nose tackle Terrance “Mount” Cody is poised for a colossal campaign and is reportedly leaner and meaner than ever. Rolando McClain is a headache at linebacker and the secondary has aggressive ball-hawks. The Tide have won last five of six as favorites.

 

Does it seem possible that Virginia Tech was ever bad under coach Frank Beamer? You have to go back to 1992 to find the last losing season in Blacksburg. The Hokies have won 10 or more games eight times in the last decade including five in a row (38-24-1 ATS). With 14 starters back in the fold, this opening game could determine if Virginia Tech is national contender or one of the best in the ACC. Junior Tyrod Taylor in the undisputed leader of the offense. He’s worked diligently to become better passer and expects to see the results. With Darren Evans out with an ACL tear an unproven yet versatile running core will have to step up, running behind an offensive line that came into its own late last season.

 

Jason Worilds might be just 6’2 240 pound defensive end; however he’s up field before the tackle is even out of his stance pressuring the quarterback, leading another stern Hokies defense.

 

The Hokies are 12-4 ATS in their first road game of the season.

 

Odds-makers have made their case about this matchup. Bama opened as a six-point choice despite a new quarterback and just four returning offensive starters. That speaks volumes about what they think about the difference between SEC and ACC. This is a special opening matchup and Virginia Tech is 17-6 ATS in September road encounters. The Tide is 16-1 SU in opening tilts since 1992, but just 5-10 ATS during that time.

Will Tulsa attract bettor’s attention?

By
GS
Published: September 4, 2009

Coach Todd Graham has the Golden Hurricane striving for larger ambitions despite tacking up a 21-7 (13-14 ATS) record the last two seasons. Tulsa has played in the Conference USA title game the last two years and came up short on both occasions. He wants the program to revert back to 2005, when Tulsa won the inaugural C-USA championship. That goal starts tonight when they visit Tulane as 13.5-point favorites. At last check, about 85% of bettors at Sportsbook.com were siding with Tulsa.

It won’t be a simple task, since Graham has to replace a quarterback and five other offensive starters. Junior Jacob Bower has earned the inside track at quarterback, after being an understudy last season. The offensive line has to be rebuilt in order for Bower to succeed. If these elements come together quickly, Tulsa can build on its 8-3 ATS September record.

Defensively, eight players return, however, according to the coach they need to play with more conviction, after conceding 30 points or more six times last season. “Defensively, we have to get back to doing what we’ve done in the past of being successful, and that’s a relentless attitude to run to the ball and get back to a hard edge mentality defensively,” Graham said. “What we have to improve on defense is not giving away too many one play drives.”

Sportsbook.com has Tulsa as 13.5-point road favorites with total of 64 and they are just 4-7 ATS in that role under Graham.

Tulane has won six games in two years under coach Bob Toledo and everyone associated with the program understands this has to be the year to start showing positive signs. “We feel like we’ve really got to turn this thing around,” receiver Jeremy Williams told the Times-Picayune. “We’re not waiting on the future. We’ve got to do it now.”

The Green Wave welcome back seven offensive starters and redshirt sophomore Joe Kemp who won the quarterback derby. Tulane will be helped by the return of RB Andre Anderson, who was fourth in the nation in rushing and all-purpose yards when he went down to injury in game seven. They will need to score points to hang with Tulsa, however, they are just 4-10-1 ATS when getting points at home.

Tulane comes into this season with misleading defensive statistics. The Green Wave was 14th in the country in pass defense, allowing 173 yards per game. That was at least in part to surrendering 218 (5.7 yards per carry) yards per game on the ground. Senior DE Logan Kelley anchors a very experienced defensive line that must upgrade its game in 2009. Tulane is 7-23-1 ATS in its last 31 conference matchups.

Tulsa plays four of their first five games on the road, including the first three. It should be noted that they have failed to cover their last four road games.

Tulane is 0-4 SU and ATS versus the Golden Hurricane in C-USA action, losing by 33 points per game.

This conference clash starts at 8 Eastern on ESPN, with Tulsa 7-2-1 OVER as road chalk.

Bet this game now at Sportsbook.com and take advantage of Reduced Juice Fridays (-105).

CFB: Can Boise State Go Unbeaten?

By
GS
Published: September 3, 2009

Boise State is the unanimous choice to win the WAC this season and is the early season darling from the non-BCS schools to possibly pluck another BCS berth when the bids come out in December. Any BCS talk will die however if the Broncos are upset on Thursday. Over 70% of bettors at Sportsbook.com think that is a possibility, backing the Oregon Ducks as a 3-1/2 point dog.

Consider the track record of Boise State coming into the season.

Boise State has had three unbeaten regular seasons in the last five years and is 55-9 in all games since 2004. Faced with oddsmakers’ numbers just begging the sports bettor to play the other side, the Broncos are 33-25-1 against the spread in that time period.

In games played on the “Smurf Turf” blue carpet at Bronco Stadium, Boise State is 64-2 and 40-17 ATS the last decade, which includes 49 in a row during the regular season. Boise State returns a dozen starters, including quarterback Kellen Moore, who broke onto the scene last year as a freshman. In truth, Coach Chris Peterson might have a team equal to or better than the 2006 squad, which was 13-0 and knocked off Oklahoma in Fiesta Bowl.

The Oregon Ducks are not to be taken for granted just because they have a new coach in Chip Kelly. With just ten returning starters from last year’s surprising 10-3 squad, the ranking appears a trifle inflated, however three components help justify the number.

Oregon might not average 41.9 points per game this upcoming season, however, will still have ample firepower with Jeremiah Masoli at the controls. The junior quarterback is far from classic passer, but he’s accurate and is powerful runner and is listed as All-Pac 10 QB in several preseason publications. Speaking of powerful, 240-pound LeGarrette Blount is one blunt object in the open field. The architect of this high-powered offense is coach Kelly, whose been the Oregon offense coordinator. The Ducks are 27-5 ATS in first road game, including covering nine of last 10.

Sportsbook.com has Boise State listed as 3.5-point home favorite, down from opening number of 5.5, with the total having risen to 64.

This is the second game on ESPN Thursday night, which will start at 10:15 Eastern. Oregon has revenge on their minds after last year’s 37-32 home upset as 10.5-point favorites to the Broncos. Masoli told a Eugene television station during the offseason that the loss was “embarrassing” and that this year he and his team would “take it to (Boise State).”

Log on to Sportsbook.com for all of your College Football action this year.

NFC EAST PREVIEW

By
GS
Published: September 2, 2009

If not a consensus statement, it is at least highly debatable…The NFC East is the best division in football. Philadelphia, Dallas, and New York are all considered among the best teams in the conference. So who takes the top spot in 2009? You’ll get a different answer depending upon who you ask. Read on for one more opinion on that question as we preview the NFC East, offering in-depth information on each of the four clubs. Use this material to capitalize on the many prop wagering options being offered at Sportsbook.com.

2009 PREDICTED FINISH

1) Philadelphia

2) N.Y. Giants

3) Dallas

4) Washington

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

2008 Record: 11-7-1 SU (0 ML Units), 12-7 ATS

2008 Totals (Over-Under): 8-10

Odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: +1200, NFC Title: +500

Sportsbook Regular Season Wins Prop: Over 9.5 (-180) / Under 9.5 (+140)

StatFox Steve’s Take: Philadelphia lost a lot of well-known veteran talent in the offseason, but this is an organization that has shown a penchant for being able to keep the cupboard stocked. In fact, this may be one of the more talented Eagles’ teams of recent memory overall. Slight lean OVER.

TOP STATFOX HANDICAPPING ANGLES

PHILADELPHIA is 24-15 SU & 26-11 ATS in its L39 games against the NFC West

PHILADELPHIA is 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS as a road underdog over the L2 seasons

PHILADELPHIA is 20-18 SU & 28-10 ATS on the road in its L38 games revenging a loss vs opponent

PHILADELPHIA is on a 17-3 SU & 15-5 ATS run when playing with 2 weeks+ rest

2009 OUTLOOK

If Donovan McNabb played in the NBA, he’d already be grouped with the likes of Patrick Ewing, Karl Malone and Charles Barkley as superstars who could never get over the championship hunt. Though his path to the promised land was blocked by a dynasty earlier this decade–the Patriots–like the aforementioned threesome, he doesn’t exactly have a sparkling record when it comes to giving his team an opportunity. In five NFC Championship games McNabb is just 1-4. Make no mistake, the Eagles are going to make another run at the NFC Championship. What they lack in individual star power, they more than make up for with a potent blend of interchangeable pieces. Battle-tested, yet still relatively young, Philadelphia’s offseason upgrades will prove to be worth every penny.

NEW YORK GIANTS

2008 Record: 12-5 SU (3.5 ML Units), 12-5 ATS

2008 Totals (Over-Under): 9-8

Odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: +1000, NFC Title: +400

Sportsbook Regular Season Wins Prop: Over 10 (+125) / Under 10 (-155)

StatFox Steve’s Take: The only thing standing in the way of another 10+ win season in New York is the fact that the Giants play in the NFC East Division. Dallas, Philadelphia, and Washington are all bound to get their share of wins in head-to-head play. I like New York to finish within one game either way of 10 wins.

TOP STATFOX HANDICAPPING ANGLES

NY GIANTS are 17-4 SU & 18-3 ATS on the road against conference opponents over the L3 seasons

NY GIANTS are 12-20 SU & 9-21 ATS at home in its L32 November games

NY GIANTS are 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS on the road vs. good offenses (>=24 PPG) over the L3 seasons

<NY GIANTS are 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS vs. good passing QB (>7 PYA) over the L2 seasons

2009 OUTLOOK

Defense helped the New York Giants capture Super Bowl XLII over the New England Patriots, but it’s hard to forget the superhuman play of quarterback Eli Manning in that postseason. Fast forward to the 2009 playoffs, and coming off the best season of his career, Manning turned in a complete clunker, as the Giants lost in the Divisional Round of the NFC Playoffs to their most-hated rivals, Philadelphia. So what’s the moral of the story? Defense alone can’t and doesn’t, win championships. Failing to replace wide receivers Plaxico Burress and even Amani Toomer with some type of proven pass catchers may come back to bite the Giants. But playoff football is about running the ball and defense, two areas where the Giants are loaded. Their sights are set beyond the NFC East, and rightly so.

DALLAS COWBOYS

2008 Record: 9-7 SU (-7.05 ML Units), 7-9 ATS

2008 Totals (Over-Under): 9-7

Odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: +1200, NFC Title: +500

Sportsbook Regular Season Wins Prop: Over 9 (-155) / Under 9 (+125)

StatFox Steve’s Take: I really don’t know what to make of Dallas’ chances in 2009. On one hand, they are rid of the apparent drain on the organization, T.O. On the other hand, is the talent in the organization simply overrated. The Cowboys haven’t won a playoff game since Troy Aikman was in town. I’ll say 10 wins, but not enthusiastically.

TOP STATFOX HANDICAPPING ANGLES

DALLAS is 9-33 SU & 13-29 ATS on the road in its L42 games as a underdog of 3.5 to 10 pts.

DALLAS is 13-22 SU & 11-24 ATS on the road in its L35 games in the last 4 weeks of the season

DALLAS is on a 23-1 SU & 18-6 ATS run at home vs. poor offenses (<=4.75 YPP)

DALLAS is on a 8-0 SU & ATS run when the line is +3 to -3

2009 OUTLOOK

Few teams can pack as much drama in a 16-game season the way Dallas did over the last two seasons. Funny thing is, now that the Cowboys are moving into a state-of-the-art new stadium, complete with the biggest high-definition jumbo screen in the world, the centerpiece of the soap opera, wide receiver Terrell Owens (Bills), is no longer on the roster. Now that Owens is gone, it’s put-up or shut-up time for quarterback Tony Romo, entering his third year as a starter with a woeful record of 5-10 in the months of December and January. His passing stats often look pretty, as he threw for 3,448 yards and 26 scores despite missing three games, but the end results come crunch time leave much to be desired. The loss of Owens may be considered addition by subtraction off the field, but a straight-up negative on it. Head coach Wade Phillips survived a lost 2008, but the way the stars are aligning, in Dallas and the NFC East, the Cowboys face an uphill battle against the Giants and Eagles.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

2008 Record: 8-8 SU (-2.75 ML Units), 6-8 ATS

2008 Totals (Over-Under): 3-12

Odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: +4000, NFC Title: +1800

Sportsbook Regular Season Wins Prop: Over 8 (-115) / Under 8 (-115)

StatFox Steve’s Take: There are several inexperienced head coaches that I don’t trust in the NFL. The one with a year under his belt that I have in that group is Jim Zorn. I truly believe he was outcoached down the stretch last season and it cost his team a playoff berth. Well, the division didn’t get any easier in the offseason, and I don’t think the Redskins got any better either, despite overpaying for DT Albert Haynesworth. Under 8.

TOP STATFOX HANDICAPPING ANGLES

Over the L2 seasons, WASHINGTON is just 3-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in non-conference games

WASHINGTON is 31-13 SU & 32-10 ATS in its L44 games vs. bad rushing teams (<90 RY)

WASHINGTON is just 6-14 SU but 15-5 ATS on the road in its L20 games vs. good rushing D (<90 RY)

Over the L3 seasons, WASHINGTON is on a slide of 5-10 SU & 2-11 ATS vs. losing teams

2009 OUTLOOK

Few players have seen their stock rise and fall as much as Washington quarterback Jason Campbell over the last year. A fast start in first-year head coach Jim Zorn’s West Coast Offense had the Redskins thinking playoffs, especially as Campbell completed his first 249 passes without an interception and the team opened up 6-2. Campbell didn’t throw his first interception until Week 9 against the Steelers, and that’s where the sky started to fall. After Washington limped down the stretch to a 2-6 record, Campbell’s job security was called into question. Owner Daniel Snyder reached into his pockets to pluck the biggest free agent on the market, defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth (Titans) and also drafted high-energy defensive end Brian Orakpo (Texas). Both moves helped quell the talk surrounding Campbell and provide upgrades to a defense that was fourth in the NFL in total yards (288.8 per game) and sixth in scoring (18.5 points per game). Haynesworth and Orakpo improve the defense, but the offense is where the problems lie. It’s going to take plenty of points to compete with Dallas, New York and Philadelphia in the NFC East. It could be bottom’s up for the Redskins.

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