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NFLPS: Monday Night Football Betting Preview

Even the most casual of NFL fans will probably have their TV tuned to ESPN tonight for the preseason clash between the Vikings and Texans, if for no other reason than to see the strange sight of quarterback Brett Favre wearing #4 in purple. Favre and his new teammates take another step towards the regular season when they visit Houston as a 3-1/2 point underdog. Most bettors, nearly 80% of them at Sportsbook.com, give the 40-year old QB the edge against the spread.

Minnesota’s newest quarterback played only briefly last week and reports are he will see considerable action on this televised contest. The worldwide leader in sports newest NFL reporter Adam Shefter has reported there is a “schism” in the Vikings locker room concerning what teammates think about the veteran quarterback, compared to those already on hand. Upon further review, those close to the team have found this not to be the case, with a few dissenting voices, but hardly the next Civil War to start in Minnesota.

The Vikings have won and covered both their preseason encounters and will have to settle on a backup quarterback. Sage Rosenfels missed last week with an ankle and Tarvaris Jackson, thought to be the goner when the Wrangler jeans pitchman was signed, took full advantage of the situation, completing 12 of 15 passes against Kansas City for 202 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Sportsbook.com has the Vikings as three-point road underdogs, with a total of 38.5.

Houston hasn’t had the drama seen in the Twin Cities, but there was a many long face after the Texans were blasted by 38-14 by New Orleans as three-point home favorites last week. The Houston defense was scorched for 420 yards by the Saints and some members of the defensive line are on the firing line. In particular, starting defensive tackle Amobi Okoye has come under scrutiny. Now in his third season, the Nigerian hasn’t progressed as some would like to see for the 10th overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft. A solid game against a good Minnesota offensive line would help quell dissatisfaction.

Quarterback Matt Schaub leads what should be a potent Houston attack, with numerous weapons like Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton, Owen Daniels and Kevin Walter. The Texans are 6-4 and 4-3-3 ATS playing at home in August football since 2004 and have covered their last three Week 3 assignments.

Minnesota is 24-13-1 ATS in their last 38 underdog roles and 16-5 ATS when they score 22 to 28 points in the preseason. From a situational perspective, the Vikings could be in a hole, since they are 0-7 ATS on the road versus an opponent coming off a double-digit loss..

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Colorado at San Francisco Series Preview

It may not be “How the West was won” but for San Francisco, it’s a critical weekend to get back into the wild card race in the National League. With 34 games remaining, the Giants trail Colorado by three games for the last playoff spot in the senior circuit. Last week San Francisco (69-59, +10 units) lost three of four near the foothills of the Rocky Mountains and cannot afford a similar fate or postseason dreams could be washed out to sea by the Bay.

Manager Bruce Boche has the pitching aligned exactly how he wants it to give San Francisco its best chance of winning. In order, it’s Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Matt Cain, this at least sounds daunting for Colorado. Lincecum (12-4, 2.43 ERA) lost last Sunday at Colorado 4-2, giving up room service pitch for home run and walking a season high five batters. Last year’s Cy Young winner is 4-0 with a sterling 1.36 ERA at AT&T Park in his last six outings and the Giants are 8-3 when the right-hander is pitching on four days rest.

Colorado (72-56, +12.6 units) has too quickly put behind the disappointment of losing series to front-running Los Angeles and refocus on the task at hand. The Rockies are 17-9 in August road games the last couple of years and have what they believe is the right pitcher to combat Lincecum in Ubaldo Jimenez (12-9, 3.36).  The righthander has pitched a minimum of eight innings in four of his last five starts, not allowing more than two runs and winning each game. He relishes the challenge of facing “The Freak”.

“I love challenges,” Jimenez said. “I’m positive when I have a challenge. I can’t wait to be in that position. Hopefully, everything’s going to be OK this time.” Jimenez has made nine straight starts allowing three or fewer runs and Colorado is 21-6 on the road against a right-hand starter.

Sportsbook.com has the Giants as -125 money line favorites, with the total Un6.5. San Fran is 8-2 when Lincecum pitches as a favorite and has won 41 of last 58 in favorite role. The Rockies have won just one of last seven as an underdog and are 7-20 when Jimenez is pitching as road dog and 1-5 if the opponent has winning record.

Game 1 Edge: San Francisco

San Francisco knew coming into the season, they would have to build this team around pitching and defense and the front office has been prophetic. The Giants are 14th in the National League scoring runs, a paltry four runs per game. Nobody knows this better than Barry Zito (8-11, 4.09). Though Zito has been criticized and dismissed as a non-talent more than Heidi Montag, this season Zito has looked like the pitcher the Giants spent 126 million for several seasons ago. In his last eight starts, the lefty has ERA of 2.08, yet is just 3-2, as he has received the poorest run support in the NL at just under three runs a game. Zito made a decision to stop worrying about avoiding bats and instead has gone after hitters, which has paid dividends for a pitcher needing confidence. The Giants have won five of his last six starts at home.

Colorado counters with Jason Marquis (14-8, 3.47), making this a rematch from Monday, when neither starting pitcher figured in decision. Marquis has ended being a key acquisition for the Rockies, pitching well when they were still trying to settle in and rock solid once they turned the corner playing outstanding baseball. Colorado comes into the series 52-25 in last 77 outings and they are 8-2 when Marquis faces a club with winning record.

Game 2 Edge: Colorado

As if things aren’t hard enough for San Fran, the status of their top two hitters Pablo Sandoval and Bengie Molina is day to day for this series. The Giants could certainly use them for the final game of the series, which is an afternoon affair. San Francisco is 24-19 playing matinees and will have Matt Cain (12-4, 2.39) taking the ball. It’s easy to be judgmental and see Cain hasn’t won a game since July 24, yet he has a 2.72 ERA in that span and allowed 36 hits in 46 1/3 innings, with a 4-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Giants are raising cane on opponents at home when Cain pitches with 11-2 record and they are 13-4 when favored. The Rockies will use Jason Hammel (8-7, 4.43) who pitches dramatically better away from Coors Field. Hammel is 6-4 on the road with 2.88 ERA, thought the team is .500 (6-6). Colorado is 25-18 in day ball and un-Rockies like 36-30 coming into the series on the road.

Game 3 Edge: San Francisco

Had my four series winning streak snapped last week, however feel good about this week’s selection. As good as Colorado has been since Jim Tracy took over as skipper, San Francisco could have just as easily won three of four last week in Denver. Sporting a National League-best 41-21 home record, the Giants are the play this weekend to close the gap in wild card race.

Sportsbook.com series odds:  Colorado +120, San Francisco -150

Arizona favored to give sharp effort

The Arizona Cardinals are the defending NFC champions and are winless in the preseason, no big deal right? None of the top three quarterbacks have generated an offensive touchdown, no big deal right? Kurt Warner had off-season hip surgery and hasn’t looked like the quarterback that took his team to Super Bowl last season, no big deal right? This needs to be the week the Cardinals put it all together, to erase any doubts about them, especially playing at home.

Green Bay at Arizona

The Cardinals are 3.5-point favorites at Sportsbook.com and need to start building confidence for the upcoming season. Arizona ALMOST won the Super Bowl, yet the fact remains they were 9-7 in the regular season in 2008 and were not considered an elite team when the playoffs began. In this contest, Warner and the first team offense want to put up points and will face Green Bay’s new 3-4 defensive scheme, which features a great deal of blitzing. This could mean check downs to Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, along with some long passes facing one on one coverage.

The Packers have rebuilt their offensive line and though talk out of Green Bay is coach Mike McCarthy is satisfied with their progress, the Cards generated four sacks last week. Aaron Rodgers and the first team offense have been crisp. Last week the Pack built 24-0 halftime lead over Buffalo before cruising to 31-21 triumph. However, this is first road game which will alter dynamics. Arizona has thrived in this situation with a 6-0 ATS record in Week 3 and is 9-0 against the number if off a SU loss and opponent is off double digit win.

Tim Hightower has been outstanding for Arizona, nevertheless, they didn’t pay top draft pick Beanie Wells to sit on the sidelines and be injured. Watch the total in this contest, which presently is 41 points. The Redbirds are 10-2 OVER after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games and Green Bay is 8-1 OVER when playing with six or less days rest.

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New Props offer more excitement

With the start of the 2009 NFL season less than two weeks away, Sportsbook.com offers the most props and futures in the industry. Just this week, two unique futures were opened: the Top Offense and the Top Defense for the 2009 campaign.

Defense may win championships, however the list of best defensive teams changes more frequently than offense. We rightly assume Pittsburgh and Baltimore are always in the mix and these two teams are the favorites in this prop category, with the Steelers +250 and the Ravens +400. Though both should be looked at strongly, teams can pop up unexpectedly, with no prior warning. The Oakland Raiders were 27th in total defense in 2005 and shot all the way to third in 2006, only to return to 22nd in 2007.

The NFC East had four of the Top 8 defenses in 2008 and all four squads are listed in the Top 11 wagers, ranging from +600 for the New York Giants to +1500 for Dallas and Washington. One team to keep an eye on at +1000 is Minnesota. The Vikings have finished in the Top 8 of total defense in two of the last three years and they have a quarterback in Brett Favre who can move the chains and possess the pigskin. Plus, Minnesota has the second easiest schedule coming into the season which could enhance their chances.

The top offenses tend to be more stable for one main reason, the quarterback position. If a team has a top flight signal caller, they have to have a good offensive line to protect him and the front office realizes they have to supply him with weapons to maximize potential.

With Tom Brady back, most would expect New England to approach the numbers they reached in 2007, when they led the NFL in points scored (NFL record) and total offense. The Patriots were fifth in yards gained last season with a quarterback (Matt Cassell) only a select few had ever heard of. New England is a justifiable +300 with a healthy Brady.

New Orleans is prolific in moving the ball with Drew Brees at quarterback and Sean Payton designing the offense. Payton understands Brees’ strengths and plays to them and the former Purdue QB is accurate passer both in the long and short game. The Saints led the NFL in most yards gained a season ago and are co-favorites with the Pats at +300.

Green Bay has been an unwonted offensive team since Brett Favre first played for the Green and Gold and Aaron Rodgers has learned his lessons well based on last year’s performance. The Packers are +600 to be top offense and have the third easiest slate in 2009.

Arizona, Philadelphia, Dallas and Houston can all move the ball with aplomb and have to be contenders. San Diego could be absorbing long shot at +2000 with Philip Rivers now in control of team and relatively favorable schedule once they get past Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the first four games.

There are also other fun NFL props to consider, like most individual player sacks and who will be the leading scoring kicker. Log on now to Sportsbook.com to check out these props and much more.

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